MANILA — The Department of Health on Monday stated that Covid-19 infections may reach 4,000 to more than 8,000 by the end of October if decreased compliance with public health safeguards continues.
In a briefing, DOH Epidemiology Bureau Director Alethea De Guzman said that data as of mid-September revealed that cases were expected to “follow a continuous slow downward trend.” FASSSTER, a web application for creating disease models for diseases and for visualizing syndromic surveillance, projected 1,204 cases a day by the end of the month under this scenario.
If compliance with minimum public health standards continues to drop, infections might range from 4,055 to 8,670 by the end of October.
From September 26 to October 2, the health agency reported 16,017 cases. The amount was 10% lower than the number of cases reported the previous week.
Covid-19 spread remained low in the country. Meanwhile, Metro Manila maintained its moderate risk classification for virus transmission.
De Guzman added the projections of the Australian Modeling Network (AuTuMN) showed that “even with case increases, severe and critical cases are not seen to exceed those previously observed during Delta and Omicron spikes.”
“However, with the emergence of a new variant, this may lead to sharp increase of hospitalization at the beginning of 2023 in the National Capital Region,” De Guzman added. The official stressed the effects of a possibly more transmissible new variant may be minimized by COVID-19 vaccination.
After 80% of the country’s target population was vaccinated in February 2022, vaccination rates have declined. Only 26% of the target population has received booster doses.
“As we continually lift restrictions and as mobility further increases, occurrence of cases and periodic spikes are inevitable. But vaccination will be central in ensuring minimal hospitalization with severe disease and as well as deaths,” De Guzman said.
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