Phivolcs: Mayon unrest may last for months

MANILA — The Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs) on Tuesday said the slow unrest at Mayon Volcano may mean that the volcanic activity could persist for a longer time and could take up to months to quiet down.

Phivolcs director Teresito Bacolcol said that there has been “very slow effusion of lava” from the summit crater that emplaced lava flow and debris within approximately a kilometer from the crater.

“Based on our previous experiences, this activity may persist for a few months. In case of violent eruption, this will probably just take a few days to weeks. But if it’s like this, that it’s slow, it will probably take several months,” Bacolcol explained.

One volcanic earthquake and 221 rockfall events were observed in the 24 hours since Monday. There was also a dome-collapse pyroclastic density current that was observed, which lasted two minutes.

Bacolcol said Mayon is not exhibiting signs of a hazardous eruption yet as it is following a quiet eruption similar to 2014.

“We are not seeing signs of hazardous eruption. What we are seeing now is it’s following the template of the 2014 eruption, which was a quiet eruption, effusive eruption. Just like in 2014, we have rockfalls and short lava flow and it stops. We hope this is the case here. If explosive eruption, the PDZ needs to be extended and many people need to be evacuated,” he said over Teleradyo.

Bacolcol noted during the previous two times that there was unrest at the volcano, it lasted for a couple of months, such as January to March in 2018 and also the same number of months in 2014.

Phivolcs also observed thin ash and continuous moderate degassing from the summit crater that produced steam-laden plumes. There was also fair crater glow or “banaag” and incandescent rockfall shed from new fluidal lava at the summit crater.

Alert Level 3 has been raised over Mayon, meaning there is a relatively high level of unrest as magma is at the crater and hazardous eruption is possible within weeks or even days.

Evacuees

Some 3,701 families or 13,179 persons remain in temporary shelters as Mayon continues to spew lava and release gas, the National Disaster Risk Reduction Management Council (NDRRMC) reported.

There was a slight decrease in the number of affected residents from 14,360 on Monday to 13,811 individuals as of yesterday.

However, only 175 families or 632 persons are staying outside 21 different evacuation centers.

Meanwhile, the Department of Education (DepEd) said at least 14 schools in Albay are currently being used as evacuation centers for displaced residents.

Data as of June 12 showed that 18 schools in six areas – Camalig, Daraga, Guinobatan, Malilipot, Ligao City, Tabaco City – have so far suspended classes.

Two schools are within the six-kilometer danger zone, while another 45 schools are within seven to eight kilometers from the volcano, the DepEd added.

Earlier, DepEd spokesman Michael Poa said there are contingency plans in place in case of class suspensions due to the unrest of Mayon Volcano.

In a message to The STAR last week, Poa said affected schools will resort to remote learning and modular assessments if in-person classes do not resume before the end of the school year this month.

Cash assistance

President Marcos has ordered the Department of Social Welfare and Development (DSWD) to study the possible distribution of cash aid to residents affected by the Mayon Volcano unrest to ensure that all their needs are provided.

During a press briefing with Palace reporters yesterday, DSWD Secretary Rex Gatchalian said not all the necessities of evacuees, such as milk for their children, are in the food packs being distributed by the government.

“I am talking with the local government, upon the instruction of the President, there might be a need to provide them with financial assistance. So I am talking with (Albay) Governor (Edcel Greco) Lagman on how and why we will provide the financial assistance and how much,” Gatchalian said in Filipino.

“We are also talking to the congressional representation of Albay to get all the varying inputs on how we can help,” he added.

The government usually provides food and non-cash items to people displaced by disasters.

Gatchalian assured the public that Marcos is monitoring the situation in Albay carefully and is communicating constantly with agencies since last week to ensure that the evacuees have food to eat.

“We know that the operation of evacuation centers are (among) the responsibilities of the local government units. But the DSWD, upon instruction of the President, will give them the necessary logistics support,” the social welfare chief said.

According to Gatchalian, there will be five waves of food distribution that target 8,000 families. Each wave will be good for three days.

“Around 38,000 food packs are now with the local government units to include the provincial government,” he said.

Gatchalian explained that the local governments will take care of the first 15 days of food distribution while the next six days will be handled by the provincial government to prevent the overlapping of resources.

“After the six days, that brings us to 21 days, the DSWD will again come in (for) another 15 days. So, it’s wave after wave. Then that would bring us close to 45 days, which is historically the minimum or sometimes, an eruption happens and it lasts up to 45 days,” he said.

If the Mayon Volcano unrest lengthens to 90 days, the DSWD would sit down with the local government to make sure that there is an arrangement on who feeds on what days.

Albay Rep. Joey Salceda yesterday asked for “sustained government support” weeks or even months to ensure the safety of Albay residents affected by the eruption of Mayon Volcano.

“This could be protracted,” Salceda said as he asked the national government agencies for “patience and stamina” in their pre-disaster and evacuation support for displaced residents.

Historicaly, he noted that “scenarios” could take 45 up to 110 days and it could even be longer than that. “This will be a waiting game. Until an explosive eruption happens, or the alert level goes down, we can’t really do much other than evacuate and wait,” he added.

For his part, Health Secretary Teodoro Herbosa said many of the evacuation centers are getting overcrowded and need wash facilities. He vowed to increase the number of health care personnel in the area.

“Take care of your health workers… make sure they will not experience burnout. So those are my instructions to them, and I will send another team to augment them… So, we need to send more health teams to the area and I was informed, it may last for 90 days. So, it looks like this is a long drawn-out activity,” Herbosa said.