Statistics experts: No irregularity in vote ratio of presidential race

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MANILA – According to the statistics experts from the University of the Philippines (UP), there are no irregularities in the consistent voting pattern in the partial and unofficial results of the 2022 presidential polls.

The UP School of Statistics stated that the reported “68:32” vote ratio in favor of presidential candidate and former senator Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. was insufficient evidence of election fraud.

“Kung walang malinaw na konteksto, ang ganitong pattern sa porsyento ng boto ay hindi maaaring gamiting ebidensya ng pandaraya (If there is no clear context, such vote pattern could not be considered as evidence of cheating),” it said in a Facebook post.

After a quick count of partial and unofficial results revealed that Marcos had a massive lead over his closest rival, Vice President Maria Leonor “Leni” Robredo, allegations of election fraud surfaced.

Based on the allegations, the claimed “68:32 magic” refers to a consistent trend of 68 percent of votes for Marcos and the remaining 32 percent of votes for Robredo.

The steady pattern in the unofficial outcome of the presidential race is not indicative of vote rigging, the UP School of Statistics said.

“Hindi masasabi ng ’68:32 ratio’ trend kung mayroong pandaraya sa eleksyon (The ’68:32 ratio’ trend could not tell whether there is election cheating),” it said. “Ang mga trend sa transmission ng boto tulad ng sa ’68:32 ratio’ ay hindi ebidensya ng pandaraya sa eleksyon (The trend on vote transmission, such as the ’68:32 ratio’ is not enough evidence that there is cheating in elections).”

It is “wrong,” according to the university’s statistic experts, to assume that the votes have been manipulated just because Marcos has a substantial lead in the presidential race.

“Ang hindi paggalaw ng ’68:32 ratio’ base sa cumulative totals ay hindi maituturing na irregularity. Mali ang mga kumakalat na analysis base sa cumulative o pinagsama-samang bilang ng boto sa bawat update (The consistent ’68:32′ ratio based on the cumulative totals is not tantamount to irregularity. The analysis on the cumulative total of votes in every update is wrong),” it said.

Meanwhile, PPCRV national chairperson Myla Villanueva said there are no irregularities so far in the partial and unofficial tally of votes.

The Commission on Elections also said the cheating allegation in the presidential polls is hard to prove.