PBBM: Single mistake can trigger SCS conflict

MELBOURNE – President Marcos said a single mistake or a misinterpreted action could escalate tensions in the South China Sea. He expressed his endorsement for endeavors aimed at upholding peace in the contested region, urging for a reduction in the provocative language used by parties embroiled in the maritime dispute.

During an interview with ABC News aired last Monday, President Marcos voiced his backing for diplomatic collaborations such as the Quad and AUKUS, citing them as integral for bolstering peace efforts in the South China Sea.

The Quad, comprising Australia, India, Japan, and the US, is dedicated to advancing an open, stable, and prosperous Indo-Pacific region. On the other hand, AUKUS represents a trilateral security partnership involving Australia, the UK, and the US. Its initiatives include aiding Canberra in procuring nuclear-powered submarines for the Royal Australian Navy.

“It is a response really to a differing situation and more dangerous, more risky situation than we had before,” Marcos said.

When questioned about why he believed the situation in the region had become more perilous, the President responded, “Because the likelihood of direct conflict is significantly greater now than it was previously.”

“And we worry in the Philippines because it could come from not a strategic decision by anyone, saying OK, we’re going to war, but just by making some servicemen making a mistake or some action that’s misunderstood,” he added.

Marcos emphasized the necessity of current efforts aimed at “lowering the temperature, toning down rhetoric, and fostering continuous communication” to mitigate the risk of potential conflict.

Reflecting on his visit to China the previous year, Marcos recalled his proposal for establishing a hotline between himself and Chinese President Xi Jinping to prevent any untoward incidents in the South China Sea. However, he disclosed that such a direct line with his Chinese counterpart has yet to be established.

Regarding the potential for Australian Navy intervention in defense of the Philippines in a conflict with China over the South China Sea, Marcos noted the absence of a formal agreement or treaty with Canberra akin to the one with Washington.

While the Philippines maintains a visiting forces agreement with both Australia and the US, Marcos highlighted that no similar arrangement exists with Australia. He underscored that last year, he and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese signed an agreement to elevate their countries’ partnership from comprehensive to strategic, citing their longstanding history of cooperation and friendship.

Australia, France, Japan joining Balikatan

Military forces from Australia, France, and Japan are anticipated to participate in what could be the largest iteration of the annual Balikatan exercises between the Philippines and the United States next month.

According to Balikatan executive agent Col. Michael Logico, in addition to the US Indo-Pacific Command (INDOPACOM), the Australian Defense Force and the French Navy are also expected to be involved.

Additionally, representatives and delegates from various countries worldwide are slated to participate as observers, witnessing the war games conducted in different parts of the Philippines, including the waters of the West Philippine Sea (WPS) and Batanes, which is proximate to Taiwan.

“We have also sent our invitation to the Japanese Self Defense Forces although right now, I have not yet confirmed if they have accepted the invitation to join us in the exercises,” he told reporters at a briefing yesterday.

“Aside from that, we have also invited observers to be joining us in the international service program so there is a list of countries that will be involved in the IOP (international observer program) and their role there is just to observe the exercise,” he said.

If the invitations are accepted, Logico explained that Australia, France, and Japan will directly participate in the Balikatan exercises, which are scheduled to commence in the third week of April and extend until the first week of May.

He noted that Batanes is among the locations being considered by the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) for the exercises, as they aim to diversify from traditional training areas like Fort Magsaysay in Nueva Ecija and the Colonel Ernesto Ravina Air Base in Tarlac.

Logico highlighted that Balikatan 2024 will feature maritime exercises west of Palawan, including the West Philippine Sea (WPS), and integrated air missile defense exercises in Central Luzon. These exercises will utilize the military’s newly-acquired weapon systems from the AFP Modernization Program, with a focus on testing interoperability between the AFP’s and the US’s weapon systems through both live fire and virtual simulations.